Location Analysis

Location Analysis comprises a set of useful tools for: population projections; economic base analysis; and, local employment and income projections.

Population Projections, particularly small-area projections using simple, composite, and cohort-survival techniques for estimating the growth or decline of populations over time, can be used as the basis for plans and policy decisions for local governments, and for market analysis for the private sector. For example, they are valuable tools for helping local governments monitor the growth of their jurisdictions, and understanding the growth patterns of a community, and will help local decision-makers plan effectively for the future. They can also be used to project other small-area characteristics, such as the number of households, local employment, or consumer retail expenditures, and help answer such questions as:

·         How many people must we plan for within the city, within the urban growth boundary, elsewhere in the county?

·         What are the community’s long-range needs for capital facilities?

·         How many school-age children, by grade level, will we need to plan for?

·         How many elderly people are likely to require supervisory care in the next five years?

·         What will the demand be for new housing units over the next three years?

·         What is the expected disposable income over the next five years?

Economic Base Analysis uses the location quotient, employment shift-share, and employment multiplier techniques to help local governments, chambers of commerce, and industry associations answer such questions as:

·         What are the local economy’s growth industries?

·         How are local industries performing in comparison to their counterparts in the State or in the nation as a whole?

·         How many jobs will be created by the relocation of an export industry into our community?

Local Employment Projections uses constant-share and shift-share techniques to project the employment and other characteristics of a region from national- or state-level projections and historical data relating to past growth trends in the two regions. These techniques take advantage of the fact that large-area projections are generally more detailed and more reliable than small-area projections. Consequently, they are useful when large-area projections for a state or county are available but small-area (city, county subdivision) projections are not, and can help answer such questions as:

·         What is the projected total local employment in the near future?

·         What is the projected employment in a particular local industry (tourism, lumber and wood products) in the year 2005 or 2010?

More sophisticated general  equilibrium regional input-output and econometric forecasting modeling techniques can also be used to obtain projections of the direct, indirect, and induced employment, and income impacts of various projects or different land use development scenarios, at the individual industry sector level.   These models are very useful for analyzing the economic and demographic effects of fiscal, transportation, energy, economic development, environmental and other policies and projects.